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| President Tinubu…..leading Nigeria to a one-party state… |
By Emeka Alex Duru, PhD
(08054103327, nwaukpala@yahoo.com)
Parts of the headline and substance of the discussion in my November, 3, 2023 piece - “How democracy dies in Nigeria’ - were informed by a 2018 publication by Harvard University political scientists, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, titled: How Democracies Die.
The uncertain developments in the country ahead of the 2027 elections, make it compelling to return to the thesis and lessons of the book.
The work is a study on how leaders can subvert the democratic process to increase their power. Part of the strategies is truncating the processes and institutions through which they attained power. The book advocates mutual tolerance and respect for the political legitimacy of the opposition, including accepting the results of a free and fair election where the party in power loses.
The authors also stress the importance of respecting the opinions of those of different orientations.
They advise against denial of legitimacy of the opponents, by which ruling parties, cast their rivals as criminals, subversive, unpatriotic or a threat to national security or the existing way of life.
In their words; “Democracies may die at the hands not of generals but of elected leaders – presidents or prime ministers, who subvert the very process that brought them to power.”
Soccer game is used by Levitsky and Ziblatt to illustrate how autocrats subtly undermine national institutions to achieve their desire. In it, power mongers compromise the referee, sideline at least some of opponent’s star players and rewrite the rules of the game to lock in their advantage.
The institutions that are readily targeted, include the judiciary, law enforcement agencies and other regulatory bodies, that are ordinarily supposed to be neutral arbiters and guardrails of democracy.
“Capturing the referees provides the government with more than a shield”, the authors note.
Current trends in Nigeria’s democratic experiments fit into the scenes in the book. In the frenzy to actualise his second term desire, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are increasingly throwing caution to the wind and carrying on in manners that portray them as lacking in decency and decorum.
The President has virtually undermined all the institutions of democracy in the land, trampled on the opponents in a carriage that suggests that he is the lord of the manor before whom other Nigerians must prostrate.
At public functions now, his campaign jingle, “On your mandate we shall stand”, attracts more chorus than the National Anthem. Rather than rendering service to the people, all his efforts are channeled towards getting returned, possibly without election, in 2027.
For Tinubu and APC to have their way, the opposition is rendered irrelevant, so that elections will be massively rigged at the state and centre. The latest engineered crisis in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) points to the dangerous dimension the administration is going.
On Tuesday, April 1, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the removal of the names of the National Working Committee (NWC) of the ADC led by David Mark from its official portal, explaining the action to be in compliance with a Court of Appeal order.
According to the commission, the appellate court had in a judgment delivered on March 12, 2026, directed all parties to maintain the existing situation before a dispute arose and refrain from actions that could prejudice the outcome of a substantive suit before the Federal High Court in Abuja. The decision followed a leadership crisis within the ADC, with rival factions led by Nafiu Bala Gombe and Mark laying claim to the party’s leadership.
Now, if you take the matter from the face value, you may think that INEC is abiding by the rule of law. But that is a ruse. The INEC of Prof Joash Amupitan, is increasingly showing that it is a carryover of the odious Mahmood Yakubu era in reading the lips and serving the interest of the President and the ruling party.
According to INEC’s revised schedule for the elections, political parties are to fix dates for their primaries within April 23 to May 30, 2026. ADC had already fixed April 14 for its National Convention before the obvious distraction from INEC. With the decision by INEC not to recognise its leadership, the party’s plans and programmes, could be in jeopardy.
That was how the unending crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), commenced. In all the instances, the unseen hands of the government loom large. It is obvious that Nafiu Bala Gombe is playing the spoiler and undertaker in ADC.
The Minister for Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, is carrying out same task in the destabilisation of the PDP, just as Julius Abure is seen as the government’s mole in LP. The entire plot is to return Tinubu for a second term without a contest.
Since the agenda assumed consuming dimension, everything has been introduced into the mix, including cajoling and coercing members of the opposition to defect from their parties to the APC. The ruling party presently has 32 out of the 36 governors in the country, in its fold but still unsure of what could happen in a free and fair election next year.
Of course, there would be nothing wrong if the APC the politicians are being pushed into, is showing examples in internal democracy and good governance. But that is not the case. In fact, the situation is such bad that whatever ills Nigerians encountered or complained about in the 16 years of the PDP between 1999 and 2015, have multiplied under Tinubu and the APC. There lies the threat to Nigeria’s democracy
Democracy accords the people the right to their choice of leadership and freedom of association. That freedom of association is expressed in formation and membership of political parties and organisations. From 1999, Nigerians have enjoyed that right. That has given them the opportunity to belong to political parties of their choices and aspire to leadership positions in the country. Tinubu’s APC benefitted from that right when it was allowed to be registered in 2014.
Democracy thrives in an atmosphere of multi-party system. Democracy without opposition is antithetical and an invitation to civilian autocracy. Opposition political parties are major ingredients in democracy. They provide the barometer with which the activities of the ruling parties are measured. The parties in power need the criticisms from the opposition to be on their toes and offer good governance to the people.
Unfortunately, twenty-seven years of practicing democracy, rather than widening the frontiers of the system and consolidating on the gains, Nigeria is at the risk of drifting to a one-party state. That is a major feature of President Tinubu’s reelection agenda. It is one ambition that is characterised by desperation.
President Tinubu and his gang should therefore, not be allowed to have their way in this bizarre drive that portends dangers to Nigeria’s democracy. The opposition must be allowed to thrive. Whatever moves to weaken the opposition should be resisted with all legitimate means by Nigerians.
Weakening the opposition was how many African countries walked into serious problems that are currently haunting them. Nigerians must rise and ensure that the obvious antics by the President to push the country into one-party state because of his second term bid, do not succeed.
~Dr. Duru is the Editor, TheNiche Newspapers, Lagos
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